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with Anne Burton, under review
There is mounting causal evidence that particulate matter pollution reduces real-time cognitive function and increases aggressive behavior. We investigate a setting in which both of these functions matter greatly: driving. Using exogenous variation in wind speed and direction, we show that higher PM2.5 exposure results in more fatal car crashes and fatalities. Further, it is only exposure within the preceding 24 hours that increases accidents and fatalities, highlighting the immediate negative effects of high pollution days. Reducing fine particulate matter pollution by one standard deviation across the board would have averted 1,700 motor vehicle fatalities in 2019.
with Michael D. Noel and Madison Hill, under review
The combination of ongoing pandemic-related supply chain issues and the commencement of the Ukraine-Russia war triggered a sharp increase in gasoline prices in 2022, occurring alongside a forty-year high in general inflation. In response, five state governments temporarily stopped collecting excise taxes on gasoline in order to provide `inflation relief' to their constituents. In this work, we examine the incidence of this tax relief and assess whether or not the full amount was passed-through to consumers using multiple methodologies in a natural experiment setting. We find that excise tax pass-through was not complete, with only about 73% of the excise tax relief passed down to consumers. Georgia had the lowest pass-through rate of 62.8% while Connecticut had the highest rate at 82%. Our results imply an unintended subsidy to gasoline retailers of more than $571 million dollars in exchange for only about $10 in savings for each driver. The results highlight the need for alternative policy measures.
The Role of Nominal Gas Prices in Driving Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
with Mariya Burdina, under review
There is a well-worn expectation that people base their expectations of economic conditions on a simple heuristic -- the price of gas at that moment. However, there is limited evidence of this in the empirical literature. We provide well-identified microfoundations for how people update their beliefs on their own financial well-being and inflation expectations using microdata from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations linked with gas prices specific to the week and state the survey was taken.
with Madison Hill, under review
Labor strikes can be controversial and their coverage often leads the news locally and nationally. This is especially true when educators are the ones striking and public schools must go on hiatus. Here, we investigate how a walkout and state-wide pay increase affected teacher labor market decisions in the academic years following the strike. Using granular job-level data, we find that separations and turnover rates for educators fell, but also that there was no change in stable hires following the walkout and some evidence that this measure declined. We also find that teachers in border counties that were most exposed to differences in education funding did not behave differently than those in interior counties.
All publications, grants
All publications, grants
Roach, T., Gittings, R. K., (forthcoming) Power Sector Emissions Under Tightening Carbon Dioxide Quotas, Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy.
Pham, L., Roach, T. (2024) Spillover Benefits of Carbon Dioxide Cap and Trade Policy: Evidence from the Toxics Release Inventory, Economic Inquiry.
Roach, T., Nath, S., Jog, C. (2024) Clean Protectionism? Coal Mining and Crime in India, Applied Economics Letters.
Gittings, R. K., Roach, T. (2023) Labor Reallocation and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy.
Nath, S. Roach, T. (2023) Counties with More Vietnam Veterans Have Higher Suicide Rates, Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy.
Pham, L. Roach, T. (2023) Particulate Pollution and Learning, Economics of Education Review 92.
Roach, T., Hicks, R. (2022) Hot, Cross, Guns. Climate Change Economics 13(2).
Roach, T., Maisch, J., Oller, J. (2022) "Frackers" of the Flower Moon: How Oil and Gas Production has Affected Indigenous Labor Outcomes. Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy 5, 151-166.
Noel, M., Roach, T. (2022) Accounting for Aversion: Costs of the Renewable Fuel Standard after Reaching the Blend Wall. Review of Regional Studies, 52(2).
Jog, C., Roach, T. (2022) How Have COVID-19 Case Rates Impacted Retail Gasoline Price Markups? Evidence From Daily Prices and Transportation Choices. Energy Research Letters, 3.
Roach, T., Whitney, J. (2021) Heat and Learning in Elementary and Middle School, Education Economics.
Roach, T. (2021) Dynamic Carbon Dioxide Taxation with Revenue Recycling, Journal of Cleaner Production 289, 125045
Roach, T., Maisch, J. Pokhrel, S. (2020) Bidding in Competition: Wholesale Alcohol Markups under Changing Liquor Laws, Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy 50(1), 83-95.
Gittings, K. R., Roach, T. (2020) Who Benefits from a Resource Boom? Evidence from the Marcellus and Utica Shale Plays, Energy Economics 87.
Roach, T. (2019) Market Power and Second Degree Price Discrimination in Retail Gasoline Markets: The Case of Ethanol-Blended Gasoline, Energy Economics 84,
Roach, T. (2019) Renewable Energy Policy, chapter in the Routledge Handbook of Energy Economics.
Maisch, J., Roach, T. (2019) 21st Century Bootlegging: Unlawful Wine Shipments and Direct-to-Consumer Laws, Applied Economics Letters.
Roach, T. (2018) Oklahoma Earthquakes and the Price of Oil, Energy Policy 121, 365-373.
Roach, T. (2017) Behavioral Economics and the Trade-off between Coal and Renewable Energy Capacity Additions, IAEE Energy Forum.
Metz, N. E., Roach, T., Williams, J. A. (2017) The Costs of Induced Seismicity: A Hedonic Analysis, Economics Letters 160, 86-90.
Noel, M. D., Roach, T. (2017) Marginal Reductions in Vehicle Emissions Following a Dual-Blend Ethanol Mandate: Evidence from a Natural Experiment, Energy Economics 64, 45-54.
Roach, T. (2017) Renewable Energy and Low-Carbon Policy Spillover Effects on Natural Gas Demand, Applied Economics Letters 16, 1143-1147.
Noel, M. D., Roach, T. (2016) Regulated and Unregulated Substitutes: Aversion Effects of an Ethanol Mandate, Economic Inquiry 54(2), 1150-1166.
Roach, T. (2015) Hidden Regimes and the Demand for Carbon Dioxide from Motor-Gasoline, Energy Economics 52, 306-315.
Ginn, V., Roach, T. (2015) An Oil-Producing State's Ability to Cope after a Regional Free Trade Agreement: The Case of Texas and NAFTA, The International Trade Journal 29(4), 309-336.
Roach, T. (2015) The Effect of the Production Tax Credit on Wind Energy Production in Deregulated Electricity Markets, Economics Letters 127, 86-88.
Roach, T. (2014) Student Perceptions toward Flipped Learning: New Methods to Increase Interaction and Active Learning in Economics, International Review of Economics Education, 17, 74-84.
Roach, T. (2013) On the Nature and Causes of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the United States, Applied Economics Letters 20, 1023-1026.
Roach, T. (2013) The Benefits of Asynchronous Discussion in a Hybrid Course: Evidence From a Large Enrollment Economics Course, Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research 15(2).
Roach, T. (2013) A Dynamic State-Level Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the United States, Energy Policy, 59, 931-937.
Funded Research Grants
Burton, A., Roach, T., "Causal Effects of Particulate Matter Pollution on Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault" (external grant) Arnold Ventures, $164,312. (May 2025 - present).
Roach, T., "Economic Education in Oklahoma" (external grant) Oklahoma Jump \$tart Coalition, $15,000.00. (January 2024 - present).
Roach, T., "Impact of ESG Ban on Rural Economies" (external grant) Oklahoma Rural Association, $6,800.00. (January 2024 - May 2024).
Roach, T., “Veteran Populations and Suicide Rates” (external grant) Oklahoma Department of Veterans Affairs, $5,000.00. (August 2020 - December 2022).
Roach, T., “The Impact of Climate Change on Crime and Violence,” Sponsored by STLR, University of Central Oklahoma, $2,400.00. (November 2019 - May 2020).
Mwangola, W., Roach, T., “Applications of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modeling in Supply Chain Management Research,” University of Central Oklahoma, $2,140.00. (August 2016 - May 2017).
Roach, T., “The Costs of Induced Seismicity: A Hedonic Analysis,” (external grant) Sponsored by NSF, Oklahoma EPSCOR ROA+, State, $12,326.00. (April 2016 - August 2016).; Internal matching support - STLR, University of Central Oklahoma, $3,000.00.
Roach, T., “Price Discrimination at the Pump: Competitive Effects of Ethanol and Ethanol Blended Gasoline,” Sponsored by STLR, University of Central Oklahoma, $6,400.00. (February 2016 - June 2016).
Reports, Reviews, Editorials, Conference Proceedings and Other Publications
Roach, T. (2023) 'We get what we pay for.' School voucher plans benefit select few at expense of all others. Editorial in The Oklahoman
Roach, T. (2022) Support Thunder arena if you want, but don't expect economic boom, Editorial in The Oklahoman
Roach, T. (2022) Cutting Costs, Editorial in The Oklahoma Gazette
Roach, T. (2018) The economic case for a full teacher pay raise, Editorial in The Journal Record
Roach, T. (2016) It's time to set a standard, Oklahoma, Editorial in The Journal Record
Roach, T. (2015) Artwash: Big Oil and the Arts, London School of Economics Book Reviews.
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